The Psychology of Human Misjudgment Remix (Part 5)
Embedded Files
By Tony Clark, Founder, Resilience Tech-Forum, December 30, 2024
In part one, two, three, and four of this remix of Charlie Munger’s essay titled, “The Psychology of Human Misjudgment,” I explored the first 20 of Munger’s 25 tendencies. The tendencies are purported to individually and collectively influence why we do what we do.
In this 5th part, I present Munger’s last five tendencies: Senescence-Misinfluence Tendency; Authority-Misinfluence Tendency; Twaddle Tendency; Reason-Respecting Tendency; and Lollapalooza Tendency. Munger was particularly interested in how the tendencies conspire regarding investing. Beyond investing, the tendencies influence everything that we individually and collectively do. The checklist of human tendencies can thus be used to increase self-awareness, acknowledgement, and intentionality for better personal and societal outcomes*.
A quick reminder of the format: I provide a summary definition for each Munger stated tendency and then offer one or more songs from Beyonce, Rihanna, or Taylor, to amplify and disclose possible consequences of each tendency. Again, my hope is that this alternate presentation will appeal to a younger audience and to those who are not technology or investing enthusiasts; enabling the benefit of Munger’s wisdom, without having to read the entire essay in detail.
Regarding this publication, the decision to post this Munger remix in the Resilience Tech-Forum (RTF) blog is consistent with RTF’s goal to apply technology to the benefit of all of society. And, specifically, regarding the technology angle, Google’s Gemini chatbot was once again consulted to help brainstorm relevant songs among the 3 diva songstresses. The complete article is a curated popular music playlist that amplifies Munger’s wisdom concerning human misjudgment.
Author’s Note: Regarding Gemini, the model has significantly changed from when I started this series of articles at the end of 2023, when the underlying model was Bard. In the year that it has taken me to complete this compilation, my experience is that Gemini has become increasingly less helpful regarding this task. I am unsure what the reason for this might be. Perhaps Munger’s latter tendencies are more complicated to parse, or perhaps the model may be experiencing a period of cognitive decline. I had once hoped that the use of the Gemini 2.0 Flash Experimental model, which is greatly more confident in its music suggestions, would provide better suggestion. Alas, the experimental model proved to be no more helpful than the production version of Gemini (December of 2024). Surprisingly, traditional search was a more effective productivity booster regarding the completion of the final installment of this Psychology of Human Misjudgment Remix.
Senescence-Misinfluence Tendency: this tendency may have been the defining consideration in 2024’s presidential contest, following the subpar performance by President Biden in his debate with then former President Trump. It describes what appears to be an inevitable decline in cognition with old age and a tendency to hide the decline.
A very real implication of this tendency is the inability to learn complex new skills and to understand new complex situations. And, combined with the Use-It-or-Lose-It Tendency (see part four), may result in one trying to apply lost skills to new problems with great confidence, but to one’s own detriment, or perhaps worse someone else’s detriment.
In one of his more memorable Mudbone skits, the late comedian Richard Prior is credited with attributing to Mudbone the wisdom that “You don’t get old bein’ no fool.” So, while it may be true that young fools do not generally live to be old, Munger suggests that we may all become victims of foolishness in old age.
Perhaps an anecdote is to remain mindful of this tendency towards cognitive decline as we age. This might just be the bit of wisdom that protects one from becoming a victim of foolishness later in life.
Of course, cognitive decline can of occur at any age. Plenty of younger people are afflicted with foolishness too. Popular music is rife with many such examples. Among our musical divas, Taylor offers the following in Foolish One:
“You know how to keep me waitin'
I know how to act like I'm fine
Don't know what to call this situation
But I know I can't call you mine …
Foolish one
Stop checkin' your mailbox for confessions of love
That ain't never gonna come …
The day is gonna come for your confessions of love
When all is said and done, he just wasn't the one
No, he just wasn't the one”
Authority-Misinfluence Tendency: also known as the follow-the-leader tendency, was first explained to me and my siblings by my mother like this, “if your friend jumps off of a cliff, are you going to jump off after them?” The implication being that one should carefully consider a directive no matter who (or what) is giving it.
Or, as Munger warns, “Man is often destined to suffer greatly when the leader is wrong or when his leader’s ideas don’t get through properly in the bustle of life and are misunderstood.” Blindly following a directive can have dire consequences.
Moreover, authority is not limited to external human leadership. For example, rituals and emotions (e.g., love, hate, fear, etc.) can assume authority and misguide as well as any human leader can.
Taylor Swift’s exploration of love in False God is exemplary of an authoritative emotion that can lead to any number of misjudgments. Taylor sings:
“We were crazy to think, crazy to think that this could work
Remember how I said I'd die for you?
We were stupid to jump in the ocean separating us
Remember how I'd fly to you? ...
They all warned us about times like this
They say the road gets hard and you get lost
When you're led by blind faith
Blind faith …
But we might just get away with it
Religion's in your lips
Even if it's a false god
We'd still worship
We might just get away with it
The altar is my hips
Even if it's a false god
We'd still worship this love
We'd still worship this love
We'd still worship this love ...”
And, returning to the shortcomings of human leadership and the Authority-Misinfluence Tendency, no musical treatment would be complete without the inclusion of our guest artist (for this article) Living Colour’s Cult of Personality:
“Look in my eyes, what do you see?
The cult of personality
I know your anger, I know your dreams
I've been everything you wanna be
Oh, I'm the cult of personality ...
I sell the things you need to be
I'm the smiling face on your TV
Oh, I'm the cult of personality
I exploit you, still you love me
I tell you one and one makes three
Oh, I'm the cult of personality …
You gave me fortune, you gave me fame
You gave me power in your God's name
I'm every person you need to be
Oh, I'm the cult
Of personality ...”
Twaddle Tendency: a propensity to speak nonsense. And, surprisingly, this tendency is not limited to humans. As most know now, large language AI models are prone to their own version of twaddle, which is dubbed “hallucination.” Practicing careful and active listening may help to counter twaddle tendency.
In Rihanna’s Shy Ronnie 2: Ronnie & Clyde, among other utter ridiculousness, Ronnie offers the following completely nonsensible twaddle during a bank robbery with Clyde:
“[Ronnie:] Hey it's Shy Ronnie
And you down on the floor
I'm getting changed in my bag in the back of the store
But I'm gonna go and be the best
I knew it and $!#@ in the forest
But it doesn't matter
Because we coming for your money ha-ha! … ”
Fortunately, in Texas Hold’ Em, Beyonce offers the following creatively stated advice that can be used to pry clarity from even the worst twaddler:
“This ain't Texas (ooh)
Ain't no hold 'em (hey)
So lay your cards down, down, down, down … ”
Reason-Respecting Tendency: speaks to the tendency to comply if doing so appears reasonable. Munger teaches caution, noting this tendency “is so strong that even a person’s giving of meaningless or incorrect reasons will increase compliance with his orders and requests.”
Taylor Swift’s You’re Not Sorry provides encouragement in overcoming this tendency. After more than one apparent past acceptance, Taylor now rejects the reasoned excuse of a former lover. Taylor sings:
“All this time I was wasting hoping you would come around
I've been giving out chances every time and all you do is let me down
And it's taken me this long, baby, but I've figured you out
And you're thinking we'll be fine again, but not this time around ...
You're looking so innocent, I might believe you if I didn't know
Could've loved you all my life if you hadn't left me waiting in the cold
And you've got your share of secrets, and I'm tired of being last to know, oh
And now you're asking me to listen, 'cause it's worked each time before ...
This is the last straw, there's nothing left to beg for
And you can tell me that you're sorry
But I don't believe you, baby, like I did before
You're not sorry, no-no-no-no
You're not sorry, no-no-no-no … ”
Lollapalooza Tendency: Munger also refers to this as “The Tendency to Get Extreme Consequences from Confluences of Psychological Tendencies Acting in Favor of a Particular Outcome.” In other words, this tendency basically states that a directed combination of tendencies can amplify their combined effect.
Rihanna explores the combined power of this tendency in Unfaithful, where she confesses that her cheating and lying (at least Authority-Misinfluence and Reason-Respecting tendencies just from this part of the article) are euphemistically killing her partner:
“He's more than a man and this is more than love
The reason that the sky is blue
The clouds are rolling in because I'm gone again
And to him, I just can't be true
And I know that he knows I'm unfaithful
And it kills him inside
To know that I am happy with some other guy
I can see him dying
I don't wanna do this anymore
I don't wanna be the reason why
Every time I walk out the door
I see him die a little more inside
I don't wanna hurt him anymore
I don't wanna take away his life
I don't wanna be a murderer ...”
Again, it remains my hope that this unique, musically amplified presentation of Munger’s original work on human misjudgment will be more accessible to a younger generation of folks, inclusive of my nieces and nephews. The periodic consideration of the 25 enumerated tendencies might be sufficient to improve one’s judgment.
* A primary inquiry for Munger was how blind (or subconscious) obedience to tendency can lead to misjudgment and less than optimal outcomes. From an evolutionary perspective, human tendencies clearly have in the past provided an advantage from a survivability perspective as well. Tendencies themselves are neither good nor bad. Conscious applications of our tendencies can be constructive (e.g., used for self-control purposes) or destructive (e.g., externally applied manipulation against our best interests). Awareness and acknowledgment of tendency are keys.
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse