The Psychology of Human Misjudgment Remix (Part 3)

By Tony Clark, Founder, Resilience Tech-Forum, June 5, 2024

In part one and two of this remix of Charlie Munger’s essay titled, “The Psychology of Human Misjudgment,” I explored the first ten of Munger’s 25 tendencies.  The tendencies are purported to individually and collectively influence why we do what we do

In this third part, I present Munger’s next 5 tendencies:  Simple, Pain-Avoiding Psychological Denial; Excessive Self-Regard Tendency; Over-optimism Tendency; Deprival-Superreaction Tendency; and Social-Proof Tendency.  The checklist of human tendencies can be used to increase self-awareness, acknowledgement, and intentionality for better personal and societal outcomes*.

A quick reminder of the format: I provide a summary definition for each Munger stated tendency and then offer one or more songs from Beyonce, Rihanna, or Taylor, to amplify and disclose possible consequences of each tendency.  My hope remains that this alternate presentation will appeal to a younger audience and to those who are not technology or investing enthusiasts; enabling the benefit of Munger’s wisdom, without having to read and contemplate his essay in detail.

Regarding this publication, the decision to post this Munger remix in the Resilience Tech-Forum (RTF) blog is consistent with RTF’s goal to apply technology to the benefit of society.  And, specifically, regarding the technology angle, Google’s Gemini chatbot was consulted to help brainstorm songs, from the 3 songstresses, that best convey Munger’s enumerated tendencies.  The complete article is a curated popular music playlist that amplifies Munger’s wisdom concerning human misjudgment.  

Simple, Pain-Avoiding Psychological Denial:  this tendency describes a common human inclination to deny painful realities, often for the sake of emotional self-preservation. Per Munger, reality may become “too painful to bear, so one distorts the facts until they become bearable.” 


“I remember your bare feet down the hallway;

I remember your little laugh;

Race cars on the kitchen floor, plastic dinosaurs;

I love you to the Moon and back;

I remember your blue eyes lookin' into mine;

Like we had our own secret club;

I remember you dancin' before bedtime;

Then jumpin' on me, waking me up:

I can still feel you hold my hand, little man;

And even the moment I knew;

You fought it hard like an army guy;

Remember I leaned in and whispered to you;

Come on, baby, with me;

We're gonna fly away from here;
You were my best four years …”  

“And I'll go;

Sit on the floor wearing your clothes;
All that I know is I don't know;
How to be something you miss;
I never thought we'd have a last kiss;

I never imagined we'd end like this;
Your name, forever the name on my lips …” 

Excessive Self-Regard Tendency: with emphasis on the adjective excessive, describes how people tend to overestimate their own abilities, possessions, and future performance. One potential societal benefit occurs when excessive self-regard accompanies pride in being trustworthy.  

Negative consequences of excessive self-regard include group-bias, which resists change; poor decision-making; gambling; poor self-evaluation; and making excuses for poor performance. In Munger’s own words: “The best antidote to folly from an excess of self-regard is to force yourself to be more objective when you are thinking about yourself, your family and friends, your property, and the value of your past and future activity. This isn’t easy to do well and won’t work perfectly, but it will work much better than simply letting psychological nature take its normal course.” 

For the music amplification, I briefly depart from our trio of Beyonce, Rihanna, and Taylor, and turn to the creator of, in Taylor’s words, “the best song that has ever been written” and the author of perhaps the greatest “excessive self-regard” anthem of all time: the songstress Carly Simon.

“You walked into the party like you were walking onto a yacht;
Your hat strategically dipped below one eye;
Your scarf it was apricot;
You had one eye in the mirror, as you watched yourself gavotte;
And all the girls dreamed that they’d be your partner;
They’d be your partner and
You’re so vain;
You probably think this song is about you;
Don’t you, don’t you? ...” 

Over-optimism Tendency: leads one to overestimate the likelihood of positive events happening and to underestimate the likelihood of negative events happening.  Those who are prone to this tendency unquestionably believe that they are more attractive, smarter, better drivers, and that their relationships will last longer than the average person.  

“And you may tell me to run, run now;
But I can't do that;
We're too far down the hole;
He's got a hole on my soul;
So I guess I'm a fool;
I'm a fool in love:
But I'm willin' to stay here;
And bask in the glory of his heart;
I guess I'm a fool in love;
But I'm willin' to look so stupid;

'Til I've had enough…”

Rihanna reminds us that over-optimism can lead to unrealistic expectations, even when facing the high likelihood of a difficult outcome or setback.  

Deprival-Suppereaction Tendency: speaks to the tendency for one to suffer more pain from a possible loss than one would find enjoyment in a possible gain of the same size.  In Munger’s own words, “A man ordinarily reacts with irrational intensity to even a small loss or threatened loss of property, love, friendship, dominated territory, opportunity, status, or any other valued thing.”  At the extreme, it can guide us to focus on and over emphasize a single flaw over all of one’s positive attributes.

He don't want it, not like you want it;
Scheming and cheating, oh girl, why do you waste your time?;
You know he ain't right;
You're telling me this, I don't wanna listen;
But you insist on repeatedly tryna tell me lies;
And I just don't know why;

Tryna make this work, but you act like a jerk;
Silly of me to keep holding on (oh);
But the dunce cap is off;
You don't know what you've lost;
And you won't realize;
'Til I'm gone, gone, gone;
That I was the one;
Which one of us is really dumb? ...” 

Social-Proof Tendency: is automatically thinking and acting as others around us are thinking and acting.  This can be beneficial as in the following example cited by Munger: “what simpler way could there be to find out how to walk to a big football game in a strange city than by following the flow of the crowd.”  

Of course, this is not always a failproof strategy.  There are occasions when the wisdom of the crowd should be promptly rejected.  Many mothers have warned their teenage children, “if your friends jump off a cliff (or some other suitably high structure like a bridge), are you going to jump off after them?”   In such cases, as Munger advises, “Learn how to ignore the examples from others when they are wrong.”  

“I'm looking for motivation;

I'm looking for a new foundation, yeah;

And I'm on that new vibration;

I'm building my own foundation, yeah;

Hol' up, oh, baby, baby;

You won't break my soul (na, na);

You won't break my soul (no-no, na, na);

You won't break my soul (no-no, na, na);

You won't break my soul (na, na);

I'm telling everybody, na, na;

Everybody;

Everybody;

Everybody;
...

I'm taking my new salvation;

And I'ma build my own foundation, yeah;

Got motivation (motivation);

I done found me a new foundation, yeah (new foundation);

I'm taking my new salvation (new salvation);

And I'ma build my own foundation, yeah (own foundation) ...” 

The fourth part of this article addresses tendencies 16 through 20 on Munger’s checklist: Contrast-Misreaction Tendency; Stress-Influence Tendency; Availability-Misweighing Tendency; Use-It-or-Lose-It Tendency; and Drug-Misinfluence Tendency.

* A primary inquiry for Munger was how blind (or subconscious) obedience to tendency can lead to misjudgment and less than optimal outcomes.  From an evolutionary perspective, human tendencies clearly have in the past provided an advantage from a survivability perspective as well.  Tendencies themselves are neither good nor bad.  Conscious applications of our tendencies can be constructive (e.g., used for self-control purposes) or destructive (e.g., externally applied manipulation against our best interests).  Awareness and acknowledgment of tendency are keys.