The Psychology of Human Misjudgment Remix (Part 1)
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By Tony Clark, Founder, Resilience Tech-Forum, December 5, 2023 (Updated March 18, 2024)
Billionaire investor Charlie Munger was keenly interested in what drives human behavior. Together with his business partner Warren Buffet, he helped to build Birkshire Hathaway into one of the largest and most successful corporations of all time—valued at a market capitalization of nearly 777 billion dollars at the time of his passing. Munger’s acute understanding of human motivation undoubtedly contributed to his investing success. Fortunately for us, in 2005, he collected his thoughts on human tendencies in an essay titled, “The Psychology of Human Misjudgment,” which in his words is a “magnum opus on why we behave the way we do.” Munger's enumerated list of human tendencies can be used to increase self-awareness, acknowledgement, and intentionality for better personal and societal outcomes*.
My first thought upon reading Munger’s essay was “oh my goodness, 25 is a lot of tendencies to keep track of, especially given that most of the processing is done subconsciously and that tendencies appear to work both in concert and in competition to affect human behavior for good or bad.” Still, with my nieces and nephews as beneficiaries in mind, I took the task to present Munger’s collective insights on human behavior in a manner that might be more appealing to a broader, younger audience (who are prone to ignore any advice coming from an old guy, even one as successful as Munger). Music immediately came to mind. It has been used throughout human history to enhance communication. My task simplified: I just needed to select the right artists, to impart Munger's advice with additional credibility.
This Psychology of Human Misjudgment Remix is a contemporary retelling of Munger's essay, via the musical musings of Beyonce, Rihanna, and Taylor Swift. These contemporary musical poets where intentionally selected in consideration of our propensity to form favorable opinions of the ideas shared by people who we like or love. Formally, I provide a summary definition for each Munger stated tendency and then offer one or more songs selected from the trio, to amplify and disclose possible consequences of each tendency. Thus, this remix is intended to be a more palatable presentation for those of among us who are more musically motivated, inclusive of my targeted younger audience cohort.
The decision to publish this Munger-sampled remix in the Resilience Tech-Forum (RTF) blog is consistent with RTF’s goal to apply technology to the benefit of society by building a bridge between tech and community. Regarding the specific technology angle, Google’s experimental chatbots Bard and Gemini were consulted to help brainstorm songs that best convey Munger’s enumerated tendencies. In essence the complmuete article is a curated popular music playlist that amplifies Munger’s essay. Again, my hope is that this alternate presentation will appeal to those who are not technology or investing enthusiasts; enabling them to benefit from Munger’s wisdom, without having to read and contemplate his essay in detail.
That said, twenty-five of anything is still too many items for any person to easily digest, so (and with all due respect to Munger) the following musical restatement of Munger’s tendencies is broken into multiple parts. In this first part, the following Munger tendencies are presented: Reward and Punishment Superresponse Tendency; Liking/Loving Tendency; Disliking/Hating Tendency; Doubt-Avoidance Tendency; and Inconsistency-Avoidance Tendency.
Reward and Punishment Superresponse Tendency: a propensity for people to repeat behaviors that have been rewarded in the past and to avoid behaviors for which they have been previously punished. Awareness of this tendency can help one to avoid or to promote external conditioning. Awareness may also allow one to be less susceptible to manipulation.
Beyonce captures the punishment aspect of this tendency in Single Ladies, proclaiming:
“Don’t be mad cause you see that he want it;
If you liked it then you shoulda put a ring on it; oh, oh, oh …”And, Taylor Swift’s Shake It Off offers a possible antidote, exclaiming:
“'Cause the players gonna play, play, play, play, play;
And the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate;
Baby, I'm just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake;
I shake it off, I shake it off…”
Liking/Loving Tendency: a propensity for people to form positive associations with things that they like or love. It can help to explain why we are more likely to be persuaded by people who we like, e.g., influencers.
Beyonce nails this tendency in Crazy in Love. She cautions:
“I’m not myself, lately I’m foolish, I don’t do this;
I’ve been playing myself, baby I don’t care;
Cause your love’s got the best of me;
And, baby you’re making a fool of me;
You got me sprung and I don’t care who sees;
Cause baby you got me, you got me;
You got me ...”
Disliking/Hating Tendency: behavior characterized by the formation of a negative association with things or people that are perceived as unpleasant or threatening and is a contributor to much human suffering both at the individual and societal level.
Taylor Swift captures the sentiments of this tendency perfectly in Look What You Made Me Do:
“I don’t like your kingdom keys;
They once belonged to me;
You asked me for a place to sleep;
Locked me out; And, threw a feast;
The world goes on another day, another drama, drama;
But, not for me not for me;
All I think about is karma.”And, in Bad Blood, Taylor sings:
“Cause, baby, now we’ve got bad blood;
You know it used to be mad love;
So take a look what you’ve done;
Cause, baby, now we’ve got bad blood, hey;
Now we’ve got problems;
And, I don’t think we can solve ‘em.” Taylor reminds us that there truly is a thin line between love and hate.
Doubt-Avoidance Tendency: the desire to make quick decisions to diminish uncertainty and to avoid hesitation. This tendency can reduce stress and anxiety, and it can result in poor decision making.
In If I Were A Boy, Beyonce muses:
“If I were a boy;
Even just for a day;
I’d roll outta bed in the morning;
And throw on what I wanted and go;
Drink beers with the guys;
And chase after girls;
I’d kick it with who I wanted;
And I’d never get confronted for it; …
I’d put myself first;
And make the rules as I go; …
Until you lose the one you wanted;
Cause you’ve taken her for granted;
And, everything you had got destroyed.” She captures the essence of how quick decisions can lead to ruin.Taylor Swift’s Fearless addresses how taking risks and embracing vulnerability can help one make informed decisions despite the uncertainty. Taylor sings:
“And I don’t know why but with you;
I’d dance in a storm in my best dress; Fearless; ...
My hands shake;
I’m not usually this way but;
You pull me in and I’m a little more brave; …
It’s fearless.”
Inconsistency-Avoidance Tendency: a preference to keep things as they are, to maintain consistency in thoughts, beliefs, and behaviors. This can lead to resistance to change and a propensity to only seek information which favors one’s current position. And, it can enable one to stay the course even when confronted with adversity.
Beyonce succinctly captures the latter aspect of this tendency in Survivor, where she extols,
“Now that you’re out of my life, I’m so much better;
You thought that I’d be weak without you, but I’m stronger;
You thought that I’d be broke without you, but I’m richer;
You thought that I’d be sad without you, I laugh harder;
You thought I wouldn’t grow without you, now I’m wiser;
Thought that I’d be helpless without you, but I’m smarter;
You thought that I’d be stressed without you; But I’m chillin;
You thought I wouldn’t sell without you, I sold nine million;
I’m a survivor; I’m not gon’ give up; I’m not gon’ stop;
I’m gon’ work harder; I’m a survivor; I’m gonna make it;
I will survive; Keep on survivin’.” She reminds us that sticking with something can sometimes be the best course of action.
The second part of this article addresses items 6 through 10 on Munger’s checklist: Curiosity Tendency; Kantian Fairness Tendency; Envy/Jealously Tendency; Reciprocation Tendency; and Influence-from-Mere-Association Tendency.
* A primary inquiry for Munger was how blind (or subconscious) obedience to tendency can lead to misjudgment and less than optimal outcomes. From an evolutionary perspective, human tendencies clearly have in the past provided an advantage from a survivability perspective as well. Tendencies themselves are neither good nor bad. Conscious applications of our tendencies can be constructive (e.g., used for self-control purposes) or destructive (e.g., externally applied manipulation against our best interests). Awareness and acknowledgment of tendency are keys.
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